The Effects of Trade Liberalization on Marriage and Fertility Decisions:Evidence from China
This paper comprehensively examines the influence of trade liberalization on women's marriage and fertility in China using the accession to WTO as a natural experiment. Our identification relies on the shift-share design that combines industry-level variation in tariff reduction with differences in industry composition across cities. We find that export tariff cut reduces women's marriage rate and delays their first marriage. Moreover, it also reduces women's number of children. These effects on marital and fertility behaviors are more prominent for high-skilled women than low-skilled. The impact is mainly through the labor market channels: export tariff reduction improved female labor market outcomes and narrows the gender gap in employment.
邹先强，中国人民大学劳动人事学院助理教授，香港科技大学经济学博士。研究领域包括：劳动经济学、发展经济学和中国经济。论文发表于Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization等期刊。